What hydrogen from natural gas costs today
How it is calculated: the gas and the carbon it takes to make one kilogram of hydrogen by steam-methane reforming, at today’s European market prices: (0.08 × TTF gas + 0.0095 × EU carbon allowance) × EUR/USD. Updated every business day after the European market close. Natural hydrogen from the ground needs neither.
What is your hydrogen really worth?
How the DHI is calculated
The DHI is the cost of the two things that go into one kilogram of hydrogen made from natural gas by steam-methane reforming, at today’s European market prices. No margin, no discount, no assumptions about who buys it.
The natural gas burned and reformed per kilogram of hydrogen, priced at the Dutch TTF hub, Europe’s benchmark.
The CO₂ released per kilogram of hydrogen, priced at the EU Emissions Trading System allowance.
Converted at the day’s exchange rate, so it compares directly with hydrogen prices quoted in $/kg.
Updated every business day after the European market close, from the day’s settlement prices.
The cost of natural hydrogen falls steeply with the rate a well can deliver, and it depends on how pure the gas is when it reaches the surface. Lower purity means less hydrogen per unit of gas, and more to separate out.
Independent studies put well-sited natural and geologic hydrogen at around half a dollar per kilogram, a fraction of today’s grey hydrogen.
Illustrative cost curves: the same well and processing cost per unit of gas, divided over less hydrogen as purity falls, plus the cost of purification. Shale gas well rates are shown for scale. The grey hydrogen line is today’s DHI.
The evidence
Mathur, Moise, Aydin and Mukerji estimate natural geological hydrogen in the United States at $0.54/kg, and stimulated hydrogen at $0.92/kg. Wellhead purity and flow rate are the main cost drivers.
doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2025.150872An independent techno-economic assessment by Wood for Eclipse Energy’s RenovaStrata H₂ found a levelised cost as low as $0.56/kg, with a carbon intensity of 0.076 kg CO₂e per kg of hydrogen.
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